Will Obama Over Reach?

Three times since 1964 the Democrats have won Presidential elections only to see their mandates overturned because of their ability to midjudge the mood of the American people and over reach in their policies. Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964 and immediately escalated the war in Vietnam while promoting the very expensive Great Society. Two years later the Republicans made major gains in the Congress and in 1968 Richard Nixon was elected President. In 1976 Jimmy Carter was elected with large Democratic majorities in the Congress. After four years of weakness in foreign policy, a strange energy policy and a poor economy the country turned to Ronald Reagan. In 1992 Bill Clinton was elected on the promise to focus on the economy. Instead he immediately proposed Hillary's healthcare program and gays in the military. Two years later the Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress. The question is will Barack Obama stumble out of the gate and have many turn against him or will he, like FDR, use his rhetoric to maintain strong support for he and his party regardless of his policies for many years.

As pointed out in our previous blog Obama will enter the White House with the wind at his back and high expectations from those who expect him to bring "Change." Without question we are going to hear a lot soaring speeches and see a lot of favorable press coverage. But just what will he do and when will he do it? Obama owes his nomination to the far left of his party, but he owes his election to a broad spectrum of the American people. If he goes hard left he risks alienating more moderate elements, but if he does not make major moves to satisfy MoveOn.org, Planned Parenethood, the ACLU, radical environmentalists and big labor he will feel their wrath.

The economy will be the biggest immediate challenge and Obama and many close to him will be tempted to take the opportunity to make the government a major player in most industries in exchange for bailouts. At this writing, except among members of the United Auto Workers, there is little public support for bailing out the U.S. auto manufacturers. At the same time there is considerable support for offshore drilling which Obama will probably curtail in order to satisfy his environmental allies. Radical moves related to abortion and gay marriage will make some in his coalition happy but will generate considerable opposition from traditional voters whom Obama tried to attract with limited success in the general election.

So there are many areas in which Obama could over reach and pay a high political price. The question then becomes will the GOP produce effective leaders who will offer alternatives that make sense and which can turn back the current Democratic wave. That will be the subject of a future blog.